scout-mindset-bias-check

# Scout Mindset & Bias Check

## Table of Contents
- [What is Scout Mindset?](#what-is-scout-mindset)
- [When to Use This Skill](#when-to-use-this-skill)
- [Interactive Menu](#interactive-menu)
- [Quick Reference](#quick-reference)
- [Resource Files](#resource-files)

---

## What is Scout Mindset?

**Scout Mindset** (Julia Galef) is the motivation to see things as they are, not as you wish them to be. Contrast with **Soldier Mindset**, which defends a position regardless of evidence.

**Core Principle:** Your goal is to map the territory accurately, not win an argument.

**Why It Matters:**
- Forecasting requires intellectual honesty
- Biases systemically distort probabilities
- Emotional attachment clouds judgment
- Motivated reasoning leads to overconfidence

---

## When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:
- **Prediction feels emotional** - You want a certain outcome
- **Stuck at 50/50** - Indecisive, can't commit to probability
- **Defending a position** - Arguing for your forecast, not questioning it
- **After inside view analysis** - Used specific details, need bias check
- **Disagreement with others** - Different people, different probabilities
- **Before finalizing** - Last sanity check

Do NOT skip this when stakes are high, you have strong priors, or forecast affects you personally.

---

## Interactive Menu

**What would you like to do?**

### Core Workflows

**1. [Run the Reversal Test](#1-run-the-reversal-test)** - Check if you'd accept opposite evidence
- Detect motivated reasoning
- Validate evidence standards
- Expose special pleading

**2. [Check Scope Sensitivity](#2-check-scope-sensitivity)** - Ensure probabilities scale with inputs
- Linear scaling test
- Reference point calibration
- Magnitude assessment

**3. [Test Status Quo Bias](#3-test-status-quo-bias)** - Challenge "no change" assumptions
- Entropy principle
- Change vs stability energy
- Default state inversion

**4. [Audit Confidence Intervals](#4-audit-confidence-intervals)** - Val