reference-class-forecasting

# Reference Class Forecasting

## Table of Contents
- [What is Reference Class Forecasting?](#what-is-reference-class-forecasting)
- [When to Use This Skill](#when-to-use-this-skill)
- [Interactive Menu](#interactive-menu)
- [Quick Reference](#quick-reference)
- [Resource Files](#resource-files)

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## What is Reference Class Forecasting?

Reference class forecasting is the practice of anchoring predictions in **historical reality** by identifying a class of similar past events and using their statistical frequency as a starting point. This is the "Outside View" - looking at what usually happens to things like this, before getting distracted by the specific details of "this case."

**Core Principle:** Assume this event is **average** until you have specific evidence proving otherwise.

**Why It Matters:**
- Defeats "inside view" bias (thinking your case is unique)
- Prevents base rate neglect (ignoring statistical baselines)
- Provides objective anchor before subjective analysis
- Forces humility and statistical thinking

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## When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:
- **Starting any forecast** - Establish base rate FIRST
- **Someone says "this time is different"** - Test if it really is
- **Making predictions about success/failure** - Find historical frequencies
- **Evaluating startup/project outcomes** - Anchor in class statistics
- **Challenged by confident predictions** - Ground in reality
- **Before detailed analysis** - Get outside view baseline

Do NOT use when:
- Event has literally never happened (novel situation)
- Working with deterministic physical laws
- Pure chaos with no patterns

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## Interactive Menu

**What would you like to do?**

### Core Workflows

**1. [Find My Base Rate](#1-find-my-base-rate)** - Identify reference class and get statistical baseline
- Guided process to select correct reference class
- Search strategies for finding historical frequencies
- Validation that you have the right anchor

**2. [Test "This Time Is Different