market-sizing-frameworks

# Market Sizing Frameworks

Frameworks and methodologies for estimating market size and validating market opportunity.

## Overview

Market sizing answers the critical question: "Is this opportunity large enough to pursue?" It provides the foundation for strategic decisions, resource allocation, and investment prioritization.

**Core Principle:** Market sizing is educated guessing with documented assumptions. The goal is reasonable estimates and order-of-magnitude accuracy (is it $1M, $10M, or $100M?), not false precision.

**Key Insight:** Always use multiple methods (bottom-up, top-down, value theory) to triangulate and validate estimates. If methods disagree by more than 2-3x, your assumptions need scrutiny.

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## When to Use This Skill

**Auto-loaded by agents**:
- `market-analyst` - For TAM/SAM/SOM calculation and market validation

**Use when you need to**:
- Assess if a market opportunity is worth pursuing
- Calculate TAM, SAM, and SOM for business planning
- Validate market assumptions before building
- Support fundraising or strategic planning
- Evaluate competitive landscape impact on opportunity
- Determine realistic revenue projections

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## The Three-Tier Framework

### TAM (Total Addressable Market)

**Definition:** Total revenue opportunity if you achieved 100% market share globally.

**Purpose:** Understand the absolute ceiling of opportunity.

**Typical Range:**
- Side project: $1M+ TAM minimum
- Full-time business: $10M+ TAM minimum
- VC-backed startup: $100M+ TAM minimum

**Calculation:** See three methods below.

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### SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)

**Definition:** Portion of TAM you can realistically serve given your business model, geography, and product capabilities.

**Purpose:** Your realistic target market after applying real-world constraints.

**Filters to Apply:**
1. **Geographic reach:** Where can you operate?
2. **Customer segment:** Which types of customers fit your solution?
3. **Product capabilities:** Who can your p