Use to convert probabilities into decisions (bet/pass/hedge) and optimize scoring. Invoke when need to calculate edge, size bets optimally (Kelly Criterion), extremize aggregated forecasts, or improve Brier scores. Use when user mentions betting strategy, Kelly, edge calculation, Brier score, extremizing, or translating belief into action.
View on GitHubskills/market-mechanics-betting/SKILL.md
January 24, 2026
Select agents to install to:
npx add-skill https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude/blob/main/skills/market-mechanics-betting/SKILL.md -a claude-code --skill market-mechanics-bettingInstallation paths:
.claude/skills/market-mechanics-betting/# Market Mechanics & Betting ## Table of Contents - [What is Market Mechanics?](#what-is-market-mechanics) - [When to Use This Skill](#when-to-use-this-skill) - [Interactive Menu](#interactive-menu) - [Quick Reference](#quick-reference) - [Resource Files](#resource-files) --- ## What is Market Mechanics? **Market mechanics** translates beliefs (probabilities) into actions (bets, decisions, resource allocation) using quantitative frameworks. **Core Principle:** If you believe something with X% probability, you should be willing to bet at certain odds. **Why It Matters:** - Forces intellectual honesty (would you bet on this?) - Optimizes resource allocation (how much to bet?) - Improves calibration (betting reveals true beliefs) - Provides scoring framework (Brier, log score) - Enables aggregation (extremizing, market prices) --- ## When to Use This Skill Use when: - Converting belief to action - Have probability, need decision - Betting decisions - Should I bet? How much? - Resource allocation - How to distribute finite resources? - Scoring forecasts - Measuring accuracy (Brier score) - Aggregating forecasts - Combining multiple predictions - Finding edge - Is my probability better than market? Do NOT use when: - No market/betting context exists - Non-quantifiable outcomes - Pure strategic analysis (no probability needed) --- ## Interactive Menu **What would you like to do?** ### Core Workflows **1. [Calculate Edge](#1-calculate-edge)** - Determine if you have an advantage **2. [Optimize Bet Size (Kelly Criterion)](#2-optimize-bet-size-kelly-criterion)** - How much to bet **3. [Extremize Aggregated Forecasts](#3-extremize-aggregated-forecasts)** - Adjust crowd wisdom **4. [Optimize Brier Score](#4-optimize-brier-score)** - Improve forecast scoring **5. [Hedge and Portfolio Betting](#5-hedge-and-portfolio-betting)** - Manage multiple bets **6. [Learn the Framework](#6-learn-the-framework)** - Deep dive into methodology **7. Exit** - Return to main forec