loyalty-modeling

# Loyalty Modeling Toolkit Skill

## When to Use
- Designing new loyalty tiers or revamping benefits.
- Building business cases for loyalty investments.
- Stress-testing point liability, breakage, and ROI.

## Framework
1. **Inputs** – member base, transaction frequency, average order value, churn, CAC.
2. **Earning Model** – simulate points accrual, mission completion, and bonus events.
3. **Redemption Model** – estimate burn rates, cost per reward, and liability curves.
4. **Impact Drivers** – model uplift in retention, cross-sell, referral, or ARPU.
5. **Scenario Planning** – compare base vs optimized vs aggressive variants.

## Templates
- Driver sheet (input assumptions, tier thresholds, rewards cost).
- Sensitivity table (goal → driver → delta → impact).
- Executive summary page for approvals.

## Tips
- Keep calculators modular so benefits can be toggled quickly.
- Align with finance on liability recognition + accounting treatment.
- Pair with `plan-loyalty` command to ensure blueprint is financially sound.

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