kill-criteria-exit-ramps

# Kill Criteria & Exit Ramps

## Purpose

Kill criteria are pre-defined, objective conditions that trigger stopping a project, product, or initiative. Exit ramps are specific decision points where you evaluate whether to continue, pivot, or kill. This skill helps avoid sunk cost fallacy and opportunity cost by establishing discipline around quitting.

Use this skill when:
- **Starting new projects**: Define kill criteria upfront before emotional/financial investment
- **Evaluating ongoing initiatives**: Decide whether to continue, pivot, or stop
- **Avoiding sunk cost trap**: "We've invested too much to quit now"
- **Portfolio management**: Which projects to kill to free resources for winners
- **Setting go/no-go gates**: Milestone-based decision points
- **Managing risk**: Exit before losses escalate

The hardest decision is often knowing when to quit. Kill criteria remove emotion and politics from stopping decisions.

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## Common Patterns

### Pattern 1: Upfront Kill Criteria (Before Launch)

**When**: Starting new project, experiment, or product

**Process**: (1) Define success metrics ("10% conversion"), (2) Set time horizon ("6 months"), (3) Establish kill criteria ("If <5% after 6 months, kill"), (4) Assign decision rights (specific person), (5) Document formally (signed PRD)

**Example**: New feature — Success: 20% adoption in 3 months, Kill: <10% adoption, Decision: Product VP makes call

### Pattern 2: Go/No-Go Gates (Milestone-Based)

**When**: Multi-stage projects with increasing investment

**Structure**: Stage 1 (cheap, concept) → Go/No-Go → Stage 2 (moderate, MVP) → Go/No-Go → Stage 3 (expensive, launch) → Go/No-Go

**Example**: Gate 1 (4wk, $10k): 15+ customer interviews show interest → GO. Gate 2 (3mo, $50k): 40% weekly active (got 25%) → NO-GO, kill

**Benefit**: Small investments first, kill before expensive stages

### Pattern 3: Trigger-Based Exit Ramps

**When**: Ongoing projects with uncertain outcomes

**Common triggers**: Time-based ("not