hypotheticals-counterfactuals

# Hypotheticals and Counterfactuals

## Table of Contents
- [Purpose](#purpose)
- [When to Use](#when-to-use)
- [What Is It?](#what-is-it)
- [Workflow](#workflow)
- [Common Patterns](#common-patterns)
- [Guardrails](#guardrails)
- [Quick Reference](#quick-reference)

## Purpose

Hypotheticals and Counterfactuals uses "what if" thinking to explore alternative scenarios, test assumptions, understand causal relationships, and prepare for uncertainty. This skill guides you through counterfactual reasoning (what would have happened differently?), scenario exploration (what could happen?), pre-mortem analysis (imagine failure, identify causes), and stress testing decisions against alternative futures.

## When to Use

Use this skill when:

- **Testing assumptions**: Challenge underlying beliefs by asking "what if this assumption is wrong?"
- **Pre-mortem analysis**: Imagine project failure, identify potential causes before they occur
- **Causal inference**: Understand "what caused X?" by asking "would X have happened without Y?"
- **Scenario planning**: Explore alternative futures (best case, worst case, surprising case)
- **Risk identification**: Uncover hidden risks through "what could go wrong?" analysis
- **Strategic planning**: Test strategy robustness across different market conditions
- **Learning from failures**: Counterfactual analysis "what if we had done X instead?"
- **Decision stress testing**: Check if decision holds across optimistic/pessimistic scenarios
- **Innovation exploration**: "What if we removed constraint X?" to unlock new possibilities
- **Historical analysis**: "What would have happened if..." to understand key factors

Trigger phrases: "what if", "counterfactual", "hypothetical scenario", "thought experiment", "alternative future", "pre-mortem", "stress test", "what could go wrong", "imagine if", "suppose that"

## What Is It?

**Hypotheticals and Counterfactuals** combines forward-looking scenario exploration (hypotheticals) with backward-look