Use to stress-test predictions by assuming they failed and working backward to identify why. Invoke when confidence is high (>80% or <20%), need to identify tail risks and unknown unknowns, or want to widen overconfident intervals. Use when user mentions premortem, backcasting, what could go wrong, stress test, or black swans.
View on GitHubskills/forecast-premortem/SKILL.md
January 24, 2026
Select agents to install to:
npx add-skill https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude/blob/main/skills/forecast-premortem/SKILL.md -a claude-code --skill forecast-premortemInstallation paths:
.claude/skills/forecast-premortem/# Forecast Pre-Mortem ## Table of Contents - [What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?](#what-is-a-forecast-pre-mortem) - [When to Use This Skill](#when-to-use-this-skill) - [Interactive Menu](#interactive-menu) - [Quick Reference](#quick-reference) - [Resource Files](#resource-files) --- ## What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem? A **forecast pre-mortem** is a stress-testing technique where you assume your prediction has already failed and work backward to construct the history of how it failed. This reveals blind spots, tail risks, and overconfidence. **Core Principle:** Invert the problem. Don't ask "Will this succeed?" Ask "It has failed - why?" **Why It Matters:** - Defeats overconfidence by forcing you to imagine failure - Identifies specific failure modes you hadn't considered - Transforms vague doubt into concrete risk variables - Widens confidence intervals appropriately - Surfaces "unknown unknowns" **Origin:** Gary Klein's "premortem" technique, adapted for probabilistic forecasting --- ## When to Use This Skill Use this skill when: - **High confidence** (>80% or <20%) - Most likely to be overconfident - **Feeling certain** - Certainty is a red flag in forecasting - **Prediction is important** - Stakes are high, need robustness - **After inside view analysis** - Used specific details, might have missed big picture - **Before finalizing forecast** - Last check before committing Do NOT use when: - Confidence already low (~50%) - You're already uncertain - Trivial low-stakes prediction - Not worth the time - Pure base rate forecasting - Premortem is for inside view adjustments --- ## Interactive Menu **What would you like to do?** ### Core Workflows **1. [Run a Failure Premortem](#1-run-a-failure-premortem)** - Assume prediction failed, explain why **2. [Run a Success Premortem](#2-run-a-success-premortem)** - For pessimistic predictions (<20%) **3. [Dragonfly Eye Perspective](#3-dragonfly-eye-perspective)** - View failure through multiple lenses **4. [Identify