forecast-premortem

# Forecast Pre-Mortem

## Table of Contents
- [What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?](#what-is-a-forecast-pre-mortem)
- [When to Use This Skill](#when-to-use-this-skill)
- [Interactive Menu](#interactive-menu)
- [Quick Reference](#quick-reference)
- [Resource Files](#resource-files)

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## What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?

A **forecast pre-mortem** is a stress-testing technique where you assume your prediction has already failed and work backward to construct the history of how it failed. This reveals blind spots, tail risks, and overconfidence.

**Core Principle:** Invert the problem. Don't ask "Will this succeed?" Ask "It has failed - why?"

**Why It Matters:**
- Defeats overconfidence by forcing you to imagine failure
- Identifies specific failure modes you hadn't considered
- Transforms vague doubt into concrete risk variables
- Widens confidence intervals appropriately
- Surfaces "unknown unknowns"

**Origin:** Gary Klein's "premortem" technique, adapted for probabilistic forecasting

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## When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:
- **High confidence** (>80% or <20%) - Most likely to be overconfident
- **Feeling certain** - Certainty is a red flag in forecasting
- **Prediction is important** - Stakes are high, need robustness
- **After inside view analysis** - Used specific details, might have missed big picture
- **Before finalizing forecast** - Last check before committing

Do NOT use when:
- Confidence already low (~50%) - You're already uncertain
- Trivial low-stakes prediction - Not worth the time
- Pure base rate forecasting - Premortem is for inside view adjustments

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## Interactive Menu

**What would you like to do?**

### Core Workflows

**1. [Run a Failure Premortem](#1-run-a-failure-premortem)** - Assume prediction failed, explain why
**2. [Run a Success Premortem](#2-run-a-success-premortem)** - For pessimistic predictions (<20%)
**3. [Dragonfly Eye Perspective](#3-dragonfly-eye-perspective)** - View failure through multiple lenses
**4. [Identify