forecast-modeling

# Forecast Modeling System Skill

## When to Use
- Launching new forecasting cadences or revisiting methodology.
- Running scenario planning ahead of board meetings or budget cycles.
- Auditing deviations between forecast, pipeline, and actuals.

## Framework
1. **Method Selection** – pick bottom-up CRM, top-down macro, cohort, or blended models and document assumptions.
2. **Driver Mapping** – define win rates, velocity, expansion, churn, pricing, and seasonality inputs.
3. **Scenario Logic** – establish base/upside/downside cases with tunable levers for sensitivity analysis.
4. **Model Governance** – list data sources, refresh cadence, validation checks, and ownership.
5. **Output Packaging** – standardize tables, charts, and narrative prompts for exec review.

## Templates
- Driver tree diagram connecting levers to KPIs.
- Scenario sheet (assumption → base/upside/downside values).
- Model QA checklist (data freshness, formula audits, version history).

## Tips
- Keep raw inputs + assumptions in version control for auditability.
- Pair with `variance-analysis` skill to recalibrate after each cycle.
- Automate sensitivity runs to answer "what-if" questions during reviews.

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