chain-estimation-decision-storytelling

# Chain Estimation → Decision → Storytelling

## Table of Contents

- [Purpose](#purpose)
- [When to Use This Skill](#when-to-use-this-skill)
- [What is Chain Estimation → Decision → Storytelling?](#what-is-chain-estimation--decision--storytelling)
- [Workflow](#workflow)
- [Common Patterns](#common-patterns)
- [Guardrails](#guardrails)
- [Quick Reference](#quick-reference)

## Purpose

Systematically quantify uncertain choices, make defensible decisions using expected value analysis, and communicate recommendations through persuasive narratives. This meta-skill chains estimation → decision → storytelling to transform ambiguous options into clear, stakeholder-ready recommendations.

## When to Use This Skill

- Evaluating strategic options with uncertain outcomes (build vs buy, market entry, product investment)
- Creating business cases for resource allocation or budget approval
- Justifying technical decisions with cost-benefit analysis (architecture, tooling, infrastructure)
- Pitching recommendations to executives or board with quantified tradeoffs
- Making investment decisions with ROI projections and risk assessment
- Prioritizing initiatives with expected value comparison
- Evaluating partnerships, acquisitions, or major contracts
- Designing pricing strategies with revenue/cost modeling
- Resource planning with capacity and utilization estimates
- Risk mitigation decisions with probability-weighted outcomes
- Product roadmap decisions with effort/impact estimates
- Organizational change decisions (hiring, restructuring, policy)
- Technology adoption with TCO and benefit quantification
- Market positioning decisions with competitive analysis
- Portfolio management with probability-adjusted returns

**Trigger phrases:** "should we", "evaluate options", "make a case for", "ROI analysis", "expected value", "justify decision", "quantify tradeoffs", "pitch to", "business case", "cost-benefit", "probability-weighted"

## What is Chain Estimation → Decision → Storyte